“Greed is in the air — but patience is the play.” Let’s get into it…

Weekly Market Outlook: May 1... May 11 · The Investor’s Edge: Spr... 8:03   ​

😬 Fear & Greed Index: Market Enters Greedy Territory

We just shifted from 43 (fear) to 62 (greed) on the Fear & Greed Index in just one week. That’s a massive sentiment swing — and it matters. Here’s how I see it:

• Fearful markets = Opportunity.
• Greedy markets = Overvaluation risk.

We’ve officially bounced hard off April’s lows, and the market is now sitting in that "greedy" zone. Personally, I love being bullish when there’s extreme fear and bearish when there’s extreme greed. So right now? I'm neutral — and that’s perfectly fine.

Key Takeaway: Be patient. Don’t chase. The next big opportunity will come.

📈 Rates Rising: Not Great for Stocks

• 30-Year Fixed Mortgage: Up to 6.96% from 6.89% last week.
• 10-Year Treasury Yield: Up to 4.38% from 4.30%.
• 2-Year Treasury Yield: Up to 3.88% from 3.82%.

Rising rates make stocks less attractive. Why? Because bonds start looking better on a risk-adjusted basis. And don’t forget:

Add in that stocks just rallied hard (making them more expensive), and the current setup becomes even more tilted against equities in the short-term.

That said, I still expect rates to fall later in the year as inflation continues to cool. When that happens, bonds will lose some shine — and stocks could regain their edge. But for now: Rising rates + rich valuations = a tougher environment.

📊 What a Rebound: Nasdaq +17%, S&P 500 +13% Off April Lows

Let’s give credit where it’s due — this market recovery has been insane.

• Nasdaq: Up over 17%
• S&P 500: Up over 13%

We’re talking about a real V-shaped bounce off the April dip. And this rally came even with tariff uncertainty, rising rates, and mixed earnings. Impressive.

But also: Proceed with caution. The higher we go, the less attractive stocks become in the near-term. Don’t lose discipline.

🌍 Trade War Easing? Big Potential Here…

There’s been a massive shift in tone from Trump and his team:

• We’ve gone from “no pullback” on tariffs to a 90-day pause and active negotiations.
• A UK deal is done, and now we’re in real talks with China.
• Yesterday’s meeting with China went well — and talks are continuing today.

Here’s the thing: If we actually get more trade deals finalized this week (Trump hinted we might), the market could moon. We’ve talked about this setup before — and now we’re closer than ever to that trigger being pulled.

📉 Earnings: Better Than Feared, But Caution in the Air

We’re wrapping up Q1 earnings season, and to be honest, results were stronger than expected — especially given the macro noise.

• CEOs are still investing and confident, which is bullish.
• But there’s caution in the air, mainly around tariff uncertainty.

I personally listened to over 40 earnings calls recently. That process helped me find a few high-conviction setups. And remember:

Looking ahead: We’re in a lighter earnings week, but Walmart, Cisco, and Alibaba could still move markets — especially with forward guidance and AI capex in focus.

🔍 The Bigger Picture: Know When to Add Risk

Let’s not forget where we came from:

• The market got expensive toward the end of 2023.
• It got more expensive through much of 2024.
• Then came the correction — and it was needed.

This recent bounce was healthy, but it’s not the moment to go all in with leverage. As always, I like to add risk when the market is cheap and scale back when it gets pricey.

And let me say this clearly:

The window won’t stay open forever. Be ready when it does.

🗓️ Economic Calendar Highlights: May 12–16

Tuesday, May 13

• 📊 CPI Data (5:30 AM)
• 💼 JD.com Earnings (Pre-market)

Wednesday, May 14

• 🗣️ Fed Speakers
• 🖥️ Cisco Earnings (Post-market)

Thursday, May 15

• 📉 Jobless Claims, PPI, Retail Sales, Powell Speech (all around 5:30 AM)
• 🛠️ Industrial Production, Business Inventories
• 🛒 Alibaba & Walmart Earnings (Pre-market)
• 🧪 Applied Materials (Post-market)

Friday, May 16

• 📦 Import Price Index
• 🏡 Housing Starts
• 😐 Consumer Sentiment

Big week. Lots of data. Stay plugged in.

💡 Final Thoughts

• Market is greedy now. That’s a caution flag.
• Rates rising = short-term pressure on equities.
• Earnings were solid, but uncertainty remains.
• Trade deals could be the X-factor.
• Patience is a strategy. Sit tight for now.

The best setups will come. They always do.

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